CA Bar是没读过美国LLM或JD的中国律师拿美国律师证的一个热门选项，但是CA Bar一直以低通过率著称。此外，CA Bar（应该也是大多数美国律考）的一个重要的特征是2月的通过率要比7月的低。对这个现象，一个通常的解释是大多数美国本土的JD和LLM们都选择7月考，这些人学过美国法，而且准备较为充分，故通过率比较高。而二月的，大多都是已经工作了，或者是7月没考过的去考，准备没7月的充分，因此通过率也低。

CA Bar is a popular option for Chinese lawyers who have not studied LLM or JD in the United States to obtain an American lawyer’s license, but CA Bar has been notoriously known for its low pass rate. In addition, an important feature of CA Bar (and probably most American bar exams) is that the passing rate in February is lower than that in July. A common explanation for this phenomenon is that most JD and LLM students in the United States choose to take the exam in July. These people have studied American law and are well prepared, so the passing rate is relatively high. As for those in February, most of them are already working, or they are taking the exam if they have not taken the exam in July. They are not as well prepared as they were in July, so the passing rate is also low.

以上这个解释，应该是可以适用通常情况的考生，即这些考生都是美国法学院毕业生，不管是LLM还是JD，但是对于另一大波考生：外国律师，可能无法适用，因为外国律师没有像法学院学生这样充分的在校学习时间，大多都是一边工作，一边备考，因此不存在2月和7月这么明显备考差异的问题。但是，一直以来，一些辅导机构的人都是拿着这个总的通过率，给备考CA Bar的中国律师建议最好考7月的，因为从总得通过率看，7月的确要比2月高很多。但实际上这是误人子弟，那些辅导机构的人连最起码的数据分析都不做，进而给出误导性建议。我昨天特意把公布出来的CA Bar 2月和7月的通过率进行了整理，发现事实并非如此，而是恰恰相反。

The above explanation should be applicable to candidates under normal circumstances, that is, these candidates are all graduates of American law schools, whether they are LLM or JD. However, it may not be applicable to another large pool of candidates: foreign lawyers, because foreign lawyers do not have sufficient study time in law school. Most of them have to prepare for exams while working, so there is no such obvious difference in exam preparation between February and July for foreign lawyers. However, people from some Bar prep institutions have always used this overall pass rate to advise Chinese lawyers preparing for the CA Bar exam to take the exam in July, because judging from the overall pass rate, July is indeed a lot higher than February. But in fact, this is misleading. People in those Prep institutions do not even do the most basic data analysis, and then give misleading suggestions. Yesterday, I sorted out the published pass rates of CA Bar in February and July, and found that this is not the case, but the opposite.

上表中，我从左到右，整理了从2007年到2023年外国律师、CA ABA法学院毕业生及所有考生历年的2月和7月的通过率，一目了然。我也做了如下的图表，更加直观。

In the above table, from left to right, I have compiled the pass rates of foreign lawyers, CA ABA law school graduates, and all candidates in February and July over the years from 2007 to 2023, which is clear at a glance. I also made the following charts, which is more reader friendly.

从表1和表2能看出，对于外国律师来说，2月和7月的通过率整体在20%-30%之间，比整体通过率和CA ABA法学院毕业生通过率都要低不少。但是具体到2月和7月，虽然有几年7月的通过率要比2月的高，但是大多数年份，2月的通过率都比7月的高，平均的通过率，2月是23.56%，7月是20.80%，也是高出2个百分比的。当然，虽然2月通过率要更高，但是和7月的差异并不大。

It can be seen from Table 1 and Table 2 that for foreign lawyers, the overall pass rate in February and July is between 20% and 30%, which is quite lower than the overall pass rate and the pass rate of CA ABA Law School graduates. But specifically for February and July, although there are some years when the pass rate in July is higher than that in February, in most years, the pass rate in February is higher than that in July. The average pass rate in February is 23.56%, which was 20.80% in July, which was also 2 percentage points higher. Of course, although the pass rate in February was higher, the difference from that in July was not big.

7月比2月高很多的，都是很久远的2011和2009年的事情了，2017年2月和7月的通过率其实差不多。2020年比较特殊，这年因为疫情的原因，7月的考试推迟到了10月，而且考试也大放水，不仅考试改为线上，都不用出国，而且考题也简单了很多，MBE从200道题砍到100题，直接导致很多水货在这次考试中通过，包括我之前律所的那个老板，他之前好像考了7次都没通过，但是2020年就侥幸通过了。我听说，还有一些中专生、六级都没过的中国律师都在那次过了，所以2020年10月34.40%的通过率没有参考价值。以后要是碰到哪个中国律师说自己是加州律师，最好先确认一下是不是2020年10月通过的，可以鉴别一下是不是水货。

The fact that pass rate in July is much higher than in February were in far 2011 and 2009. There is no material difference for the pass rates in February 2017 and July. 2020 is quite special. Due to the Covid-19 epidemic in this year, the July exam was postponed to October, and the exam was also very easy. Not only was the exam changed to online, there was no need to go abroad, but the exam questions were also much simpler. The MBE exam was cut down from 200 questions to 100 questions. This directly led to many phonies passed this exam, including the boss of my previous law firm. He seemed to have failed the exam 7 times before, but he passed the exam by luck in 2020. I heard that some Chinese lawyers with no formal college education and who had not passed CET-6 passed CA Bar this time. So the 34.40% pass rate in October 2020 has no reference value. If you encounter a Chinese lawyer in the future who says he is a California lawyer, it is best to confirm whether he passed in October 2020, so that you can identify whether he is a phony.

综合表1和表2、表3，不管是加州ABA法学院的通过率，还是总体通过率，都呈现出一致的特征，即7月的通过率无一例外比2月的高，而且两者通过率差异很显著，这也是和外国律师不一样的一个地方。

Based on Table 1, Table 2, and Table 3, both the pass rate of California ABA Law School and the overall pass rate show consistent characteristics, that is, the pass rate in July is without exception higher than that in February, and the difference in passing rate is very significant, which is also different from foreign lawyers.

从以上分析能看出，对于普通的美国法学院LLM或JD毕业生而言，考7月的的确比2月要更容易通过，而且这个优势是很明显的。但是，对于外国律师来说，考2月的反倒比考7月的更有优势，虽然这个优势不是很明显。但是，绝对不能说，考7月的比2月的更容易通过，这就是胡说八道，误人子弟了。

From the above analysis, we can see that for ordinary American law school LLM or JD graduates, it is indeed easier to pass the exam in July than in February, and this advantage is obvious. However, for foreign lawyers, taking the exam in February has an advantage over taking the exam in July, although this advantage is not very obvious. However, we absolutely cannot say that it is easier to pass the exam in July than in February. This is nonsense and will mislead candidates.

怎么解释这个反常的现象呢？可能也和外国律师自身的特征有关，毕竟外国律师都有本职工作，二月之前他们的假期比较多，比如圣诞节，新年，如果又能请个年假，那么应该是可以凑出1-2个月的假期全职备考，此外，新年期间，业务可能也不是很繁忙，从而备考时间比较充分，所以自然通过率要高一些。而7月之前，首先没什么假期，此外，年中应该是都是业务繁忙期，自然备考也不会很充分。但是，这个区别远比法学院学生2月和7月的备考差别要小，因为外国律师就算业务不繁忙，也要每天去工作，而法学院的学生7月之前还没毕业，可以全天待在学校学习，这个是律师比不了的。因此，对于外国律师而言，就算2月通过率高一些，也没比7月高太多。

How to explain this abnormal phenomenon? It may also be related to situations of foreign lawyers themselves. After all, foreign lawyers all have their own jobs. They have more holidays before February, such as Christmas and New Year. If they can take annual leave, they should be able to make up 1-2 months full-time studying period. In addition, during the New Year period, the business may not be very busy, so there is more time to prepare for the exam, so the passing rate will naturally be higher. Before July, there are no holidays. In addition, the middle of the year should be a busy period for lawyers, so naturally the preparation for the exam will not be sufficient. However, this difference is far smaller than the difference between law school students preparing for the exam in February and July, because foreign lawyers have to go to work every day even if their business is not busy, while law students have not graduated before July can stay full time studying in school, which is something that lawyers cannot image. Therefore, for foreign lawyers, even if the passing rate is higher in February, it is not much higher than that in July.

最后要提的一点是，对于外国律师而言，不管2月还是7月考，通过率都比美国法学院学生低很多，而且外国律师还包括来自英国、加拿大、澳洲以及欧洲的律师，这些人可能本身就有普通法执业和教育背景，母语还是英语，其实备考CA Bar难度并不是很大（这个情况也适用于我）。而对于中国律师来说，首先没有普通法学习和执业经历，此外如果英语还不好的话，那肯定通过率会更低，很多人估计都会像我之前那个老板一样，一直做分母了。

The last point to mention is that for foreign lawyers, no matter they take the exam in February or July, the passing rate is much lower than that of American law students, and foreign lawyers also include lawyers from the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Europe. These people may have a common law practice and education background, and to many of them, native language is English. In fact, it is not very difficult to prepare for the CA Bar exam (this situation also applies to me). For many Chinese lawyers, first of all, they have no common law study and practice experience. In addition, if their English is not good enough, the passing rate will definitely be lower. Many people will probably be like my previous boss, who has always been one of the denominators.

但是，如果要备考，还是可以选择考2月的，这个也适用于中国律师，因为2月之前，正好是新年和春节期间，假期也是很多的，所以可用于备考的时间会更充分，自然通过的可能性也更大。

However, if you want to prepare for the exam, you can still choose to take the exam in February. This also applies to Chinese lawyers, because before February, it happens to be during the New Year and Spring Festival, and there are many holidays, so you will have more time to prepare for the exam, and the possibility to pass is naturally higher.